29 March 2006
Tony Blair delivered a speech on Climate Change at the Climate Change and Governance Conference in New Zealand.
Parts of this transcript may have been edited
Read the speech in full
Chairperson:
Welcome everyone to this second part of the Context for Action Session of the Climate Change and Governance Conference, organised by the Institute of Policy Studies and the School of Earth Sciences at Victoria University here in Wellington. I am Carol Hershfeld and I am delighted to be here this morning. I am also delighted to announce that our venue extends beyond Wellington. Using a live link set up by TV3 we are about to welcome our very special guest, British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Now over the next 25 minutes Mr Blair will address you from Auckland, he will take questions from the floor here in Wellington and he will speak directly to you on the issue of climate change. We warmly thank him for his participation, and the organisers for making this event possible.
In a moment I will be joined by the former Prime Minister, Jim Bolger, who will ask the first question from Wellington, but now we will be crossing live to the Langham Hotel in Auckland where John Campbell is with Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Mr Campbell:
Thank you very much indeed Carol and a very good morning to you and everyone there at the conference in Wellington. It is our great pleasure to welcome British Prime Minister Tony Blair here beside me in Auckland, who is going to participate in the conference in a very meaningful way for the next 25 minutes. Prime Minister, thank you very much for joining us, lovely to have you here.
Combating global warming, reducing CO2 emissions has been a central part of your environmental policy. Can you tell the conference why?
Prime Minister:
I think in terms of the long term future there is no issue that is more important than climate change. And I suppose my top line of thought on this is that Kyoto and the Kyoto Treaty was an extraordinary achievement, but if we are to make a real impact on tackling the menace of climate change then we have to go far further. And I don’t believe that we can wait 5 years to conclude a new agreement, I think we have got to do it much more quickly than that, and I think that agreement has got to have at its heart a goal to stabilise climate change, and I also believe that such an agreement, if it is going to be successful, has got to include all the major countries of the world, and that includes the major developing economies of China and India and also the United States of America as the principal developed economy in the world. And what I would like to see is the international community mobilised over this coming period of time. We have got the G8 in St Petersburg in Russia, we have then got the Gleneagles G8 Plus 5 dialogue that will be happening now in Mexico in September, but I think we have got to set a very bold ambition for the next stage of this, and that is to move as quickly as possible to a goal to stabilise climate change, to do so with the agreement not just of the signatories to the Kyoto Treaty, but all the major economies now and in the future, and that means in particular the United States, China and India. And I think if we are able to do that and create a framework that then gives business and industry, as well as national governments, some certainty as to the direction for the world, then I think we have got a prospect of tackling this challenge. But I think it is urgent and I think all the latest signs indicate that the problem is not getting better, it is getting worse and more rapidly.
Mr Campbell:
You spoke about a bold ambition, let’s talk about something that has developed overnight. Of course Margaret Beckett, who is your Environment Secretary, has confirmed that the government is having to reduce its much publicised target of reducing CO2 emissions by 20% on the 1990 level. The target was to get it down by 20% by 2010, she has now revised that downwards to about 15 - 18%. Explain why.
Prime Minister:
I think first of all I should say that Britain is one of the very few countries in the world that will meet its Kyoto targets, in fact we will not merely meet our Kyoto target, we will double it effectively. So we will be reducing greenhouse gas emissions by probably in the region of 23 - 25%. CO2 emissions, we set a separate additional target. It is going to be hard to get to 20%, we believe we will get to 15 - 18%, although obviously we are still going to try and reach the full target. And the truth of the matter is for us as an economy that is growing strongly, or has been over the past few years, it is always tough to meet these targets, but I think on any basis mind you we will be right at the forefront of tackling this problem.
Question:
Good Morning Prime Minister, welcome to New Zealand. Thank you for coming and spending a little time at the conference. You are addressing an extraordinarily enthusiastic and informed audience, if I might say so, committed to seeing what is possible in terms of that urgency that you mentioned a moment or two ago in your response, because it is a sense of urgency that I get from this conference, what can we do now? And with that thought in mind, and thinking of the vast food production of the EU, expensive food production, subsidised food production, where does moving that food production across into production of crops to produce biofuel fit into the future, as biofuel will be one of the alternatives I am sure that is going to be there. Do you see a scenario there that instead of the EU subsidising food production and therefore causing huge damage to some of the market opportunities of the developing world, like Africa, can we see Europe moving, can that be a leadership role that we will see coming out of Britain and other leaders in the EU?
Prime Minister:
First of all Good Morning, it is great to talk to you. And I think the most important thing from the perspective of Europe is to make sure that we develop through the emissions trading system the ability for companies in Europe, and also obviously for governments, to try to encourage the development of technology that is environmentally beneficial and that can allow us to grow sustainably. And you are absolutely right, obviously we in Britain fight very hard for changes to the agricultural policy, and the whole question of biomass, which we are developing in the UK incidentally, is potentially a major future role for the agriculture industry in the whole of Europe. Now I think it would be unwise of me to promise that that agriculture policy was going to be changed in a very rapid timescale, but yes it does offer opportunities to switch from subsidised production of food to diversifying into biomass, and that as I say is something we are trying to encourage in the UK at the moment.
I think the other thing I would say though is that the single most important thing to me when I look at this problem, not just in my own country but round the world, is that you have got to create a framework, and this is the important thing when we come to look at what happens post-Kyoto, I mean we have strongly supported Kyoto, you have supported it here in New Zealand, there are countries however outside of the Kyoto framework. The essence of this in my view is to create a framework within which governments and in particular business and industry know that the direction of travel is towards more environmentally beneficial growth, and that will of itself produce, in my view, the investment in research and development, in science and technology that we need to see. And the reason why I lay emphasis on a stabilisation goal for climate change so that we say, right this is what we think we have got to stabilise the climate at, in order to make sure that we deal with climate change, the importance of that is it gives the certainty to governments and to business that that is where the world is moving. And I think without that type of signal that as I say also incorporates those countries outside of the Kyoto framework, then I don’t think we are going to make the progress that we need.
Question:
Tony, if I could just follow that for a moment. Do you think giving that certainty of direction, which I totally agree with, that the world however is going to move fast enough? Is there a sense underlying your concern that for all sorts of political reasons which you and I understand, the world will be behind in reaching the goals that we need to reach?
Prime Minister:
Yes, that is undoubtedly the risk. However, I think that if we manage to agree the right framework, and it is genuinely inclusive, then I think we might be surprised at how quickly we can start developing this. The way I look at it is almost as if we have got to produce for the environment the type of technological revolution that gripped us with information technology, in other words you have got to create the circumstances in which the investors out there, business, the financial markets, think right this is where the opportunity is going to go. And if you look for example at the emissions trading scheme that is operating in Europe at the moment, and you can see incidentally other people in North America trying to do the same type of thing, once you start setting these goals and there is credibility behind them, then people start to change their behaviour. Now I think the problem at the moment is no-one is quite sure whether we can get an agreement that involves everybody in the world with a sufficiently strong framework for the future, and that is in my view where we have got to put all the effort in international negotiation in the next period of time.
Question:
Good Morning Prime Minister. Obviously climate change is a major issue for my generation and the next, therefore I was wondering what you plan to do to enforce its action and its sustainment into the future?
Prime Minister:
Well I tried to set out a moment or two ago where I think the international negotiation has got to go, but there is something that can be done to assist this, and that is that there is very strong pressure that comes from civic society and from people in governments to take action. One of the reasons, I was talking a moment or two ago about the United States, and one of the reasons why, even though as a country they are outside of the Kyoto framework there is action in California and in at least 7 of the north eastern American states, is because there is pressure coming from people in those state governments to take action. And one of the things that you and other people can do is just keep up the pressure. Because let’s be very clear, there are going to be some difficult decisions for governments at the moment. We were just talking about my government and we have hit our Kyoto targets, we will double it, but yes it is true, we are going to miss somewhat the target for CO2 emissions. We introduced in the UK something called the climate change levy, which is a levy on the heavy industrial users to try to get people to move to different types of technology and grow more sustainably. Now we have done that, it is going to contribute a lot to our reduction of CO2 emissions, but don’t be under any illusion, it is a very tough thing for governments to do. And when governments are faced with an issue where they have got to confront certain interests and say look we really need to make a push on this environmental issue, if there is not the support there in civic society to get behind the government, it can be very difficult. So I think what people like me have got to do is to try and create the international framework that I have just described. I think what people like you can do is to keep up the pressure on all of us, and the pressure on society as a whole to deal with this issue responsibly and quickly.
Chairperson:
You talked about the position, Prime Minister Blair, of what is happening in Britain. Do you see a particular role for smaller countries like New Zealand in the global effort to manage climate change?
Prime Minister:
Yes I do because I think there are two things that you can do. First of all a country like New Zealand with all its links down here, but also back home as well, back in my part of the world, can obviously play a role as a proselytiser, an agitator for change, but the other thing you can do is by the demonstration of your own effort, and I know you have been doing that here, to say look this is the way things can happen, this is how we can go. Part of this is to persuade governments and people that they can grow sustainably. Sometimes when people look at climate change, it is not that they doubt the science or doubt the problem, but let’s be very honest with ourselves, this is the purest example you will ever find in politics of the potential clash between a long term interest and short term pain. And governments can often be in a situation where it is not that the politicians don’t want to do the right thing, but they worry about the consequences electorally of the short term difficulty in doing so. Now I think for countries like New Zealand that have a good and well established reputation in the world, what you do, even though, as with Britain it is not New Zealand or Britain that is going to make the difference ultimately in terms of our emissions to climate change, nonetheless you can lead by example and you can do an immense amount to show people that it is possible to grow sustainably. And indeed for example with business and industry, and we were talking about agriculture a moment or two ago, but there are many other examples of this, business and industry could potentially have tremendous opportunities in developing the technology. So there is a lot that can be done from countries like New Zealand to give a signal to the rest of the world.
Question:
Good Morning Mr Blair. For several years now I have been a member of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, attending many meetings. We are made up of 180 members representing £5 trillion worth of revenue, and 11 million employees. While I have sat there through the years I have wondered why we haven’t been able to make real progress with governments, even though there has been a huge willingness to do so. Could you offer please to us some solutions to that, because the willingness is there but we need to be able to engage.
Prime Minister:
Thank you. I think there are two things that can be done here. First of all I think it is important that we show how individual people can also make their contribution. For example when you are talking about new build in housing, how you make sure that that is done in an environmentally beneficial way. We are now developing a whole programme around micro-generation, which I think is very, very important. I think also that for example in most forecourts in the UK now you will be able to get biofuel. There are a whole series of things, individual choices that people can make, and for companies like yours who are big in retailing you can be part of that. But I think the second thing is, you know the best way of getting governments to do the right thing is showing that you can make economic growth not just compatible with, but actually part of sustainability and the other way round. In other words the best thing we can do is to show the business community and have the business community give the examples also to us and to society that there is not some zero sum deal here so that when you grow more beneficially and more sustainably you somehow harm your ability to enjoy the good things of life and be able to grow, the best thing we can do is to show that there are ways that you can put both together so that you are growing your economy sustainably and consuming in a responsible way.
Now I think business, and in particular the retail sector, can help immensely in that, and that is part of what I mean by saying that there are different levels of this, there is an international level where you need a clear framework because countries have got to know everybody is in on this deal, that is the way to deal with the worry that governments have, that they will lose some sort of short term competitive advantage in order to meet the long term goal of environmental sustainability. The second thing you have then got to do is you have got to have mechanisms that can operate at a business level, like emissions trading and so on. And the third thing you have got to do is to show the ordinary person if you like, the ordinary consumer, that there are ways that they can consume in a more responsible way. Now I think in all three of those areas the policy mix is out there, what we have got to do is to bring it together and put it within a disciplined framework so that governments know there is a menu of things that they can choose from to do, they know they will be doing that within a framework that is internationally agreed, and business and the consumer have a variety of different things they can do to make their own contribution. And as I say I think the interesting thing, and I suppose the most hopeful aspect of this, is that if you look round the world today, somewhere people are doing it and doing it in the right way. The question is how do you bring it together, spread that practice and do so within a framework that is incentivising people.
Question:
Welcome Prime Minister and Good Morning to all. I guess the question that the Climate Defence Network have for you is, what is the UK doing to get the price signals right about the true cost of carbon emissions, and what mechanism does the UK employ to encourage the uptake of renewable energy?
Prime Minister:
First of all, we are looking at the moment at the suggestion of a carbon budget where we try to work out exactly what the costs are, and we have got work going on across government at the moment to try and ensure that we have some way of measuring for people what the cost of inaction is on this issue, and I hope we will be able to say some more about that in a few months time. But that I think is one further step that we are likely to take on the path to trying to show people that this is actually what the issue is and this is what the problem is and the costs of it. And I think in respect of the second, the incentives that we have now got, we have set a target for renewables for up to 10% and we want to increase that still further over time. We have also set a particular target for transport and transport fuel, and we are within literally every sort of aspect of government, for example recently with our new building regulations we set a target of 40% increase in energy efficiency. So right throughout government we put the question of sustainability at the heart of what we try to do. Now it is difficult sometimes and some of those decisions are difficult, but we have a framework now which is incentivising renewables and also to an extent that we want to go further incentivising individual behaviour. In addition to that of course we are part of the European emissions trading system. There is an issue as to whether that system continues after 2012 and we are in the process of trying to secure agreement from our European partners that it should do so, and I think there is still a lot of potential there. And then of course, as I was mentioning earlier, there is the climate change levy.
Question:
Could you tell us a little more about how the specific price mechanisms really are working, those particular policy instruments that give people right through the economy signals about their greenhouse gas emissions?
Prime Minister:
Well for example in relation to the climate change levy, that is something that goes on business, business then gets an advantage if they are able to reduce the amount of emissions, In the European emissions trading system, that is now worth several billion euros and of course what companies are able to do then is to try to make sure that they are offsetting what they are doing. We as a government have now said that from 1 April all our air travel, there will be offsetting reductions in emissions. And then there is a whole series of things we have got on fuel and on housing, as I was explaining earlier. So we probably haven’t got yet the full comprehensive range of incentives that we need, but I think if you were to compare us with most similar countries we have come a long way down the track.
Mr Campbell:
We are just about to wrap now and Carol and Jim Bolger are going to thank you from Wellington and sign off from Wellington, but just before we go, the people in this room, they understand precisely what you are talking about, and it is not an abstraction for them, but the wider population I think still struggles to understand the issue, and as you presented it before it was nicely stated, long term gain, short term pain. We are dealing with in the minds of very many people a concept so abstract and so distant as they see it that they struggle to understand why they should act now. It is a sort of concluding remark I guess, tell us, a wider audience, why it is important we address this seriously and immediately.
Prime Minister:
Well you know I think that people do understand that climate change is happening and that its long term consequences are extremely serious. I can only talk about my part of the world, but people are noticing the problems. Now no-one can be absolutely sure that each of these climate problems we have been experiencing for example in Europe recently is connected with climate change, but the evidence now from the melting ice caps right through to what is happening in a whole different part of the world, if you operate on anything like the precautionary principle you would have to say that the science is sufficiently clear, and in my view is pretty much certain actually, that it would be deeply irresponsible not to take action. Now I think most people realise that. I can only speak about my own country, but I think most people understand this is a major issue and they want governments to act. I think the problem is how, and I think that the difficulty there is, as I say, that in the end we know in Britain, and you must know here in New Zealand, what we do in our own countries is only a small part of the problem. The emissions from Britain are about 2% now, they will probably decline to 1.5% quite soon. In China they will within 10 months increase their emissions by an amount equivalent to the entirety of the emissions from Australia. So if Australia shut down completely, within 10 months the growth in China would make up the difference. Now what are we going to do? We are not going to be able to make this work in my view, and I think this is the only honest way of dealing with this, unless we have a framework that is internationally agreed, it has to include not just the major developed emitter of greenhouse gas emissions - namely America - it has got to include also the major developing economies of China and India, and Brazil of course and others, and the only way you are going to get them to agree is if it is a framework that is universal, that covers developed and developing countries and that sets a clear stabilisation goal, with targets within it, where people know, and business and industry in particular knows, this is the direction we are going in. Now I think that most people, certainly in countries like mine, understand that is what we want, they wonder how we can get it, and I think the task is for us within quite a short space of time to say look this is urgent, we need to tackle it.
There is one other thing I should say incidentally, which is that there is an additional reason that causes all sorts of short term problems, but in one sense is pushing us in the same direction, and that is energy security and energy supply. It may well be that America comes into this for reasons more to do with worry about energy security, or as much to do with that as greenhouse gas emissions and the environment. Certainly in Europe energy security is now a major, major question. Now in my view these two issues can be brought together, energy security and climate change, and what they require is an internationally agreed framework that allows us to develop more sustainably, and actually by developing more sustainably we will also deliver greater energy security. So I am in one way, although I am alarmed about the scale of the problem, I am actually in one sense optimistic that there is a change in the way that the world is looking at this issue. I think the important thing is to capitalise on that quickly and get real movement forward over the next period of time, because otherwise what we will find is that this opportunity slips and the consequences of that for the world would be absolutely disastrous and I do not want it on the conscience certainly of me or people of my generation that we were told what this problem was in the early part of the 21st century, did nothing about it, and then my children and their children end up having to deal with the consequences.
Mr Jim Bolger:
Thank you Prime Minister, that was simply brilliant in terms of exposing both the challenge and the opportunity, and you concluded by talking about the enormous challenge that the growing economies like China produce, and I was reflecting on that and think that any novel set in London 50 or 70 years ago always talked about the smog, the pea soup smog. So you can change cities, you can change attitudes, you can change approaches. I believe that the strategy that you are talking about, Nathan you advised to keep the pressure on correctly, it is not only to set out what we want to achieve, and some of that will be driven by supply, as you say, and the price of supply, but also be honest with people and tell them what they need to give up. Strategy with a vision is great in my experience, but the challenge is to get people to accept they have to give something up, and I think the more open we are about that Prime Minister the more we will find people say yes, I understand that and we will do that.
Thank you for being with us, it has been quite tremendous, the highlight of the conference. We will go back and continue to hear the presentations from very able presenters. We wish you well in your very short stay in New Zealand. Thank you for coming though and a safe journey back home.
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